In the Prince George timber supply area, the pre beetle annual allowable cut was 9.3 million cubic metres.
The current annual allowable cut is 12.5 million cubic metres and the mid term timber supply projection is 6.4 million cubic metres per year.
鈥淚t is possible to increase mid-term timber supply to 9.2 million cubic metres per year by removing the Prince George old growth order. This increase is projected to maintain 1,915 more direct, indirect and induced person years of employment. Alternatively, it is possible to increase mid-term timber supply to 8.9 million cubic metres per year without affecting the old growth order, if licensees are able to harvest stands where the minimum volume is 140 m3/ha and access the entire timber harvest land base.鈥
So states the confidential mid-term timber supply report presented to the Minister of Forests in February 2012.
While dire in its predictions for timber supply in the Interior, these predictions really aren鈥檛 anything new.
When the mountain pine beetle epidemic was raging, cut levels were elevated throughout the Interior to salvage as much wood as possible before it became unmerchantable.
At some point, the cut levels would have to come back down. In addition, a report was published about six years ago that suggested cut levels would have to come down to below pre-beetle infestation levels once the beetle-killed wood could not longer be harvested.
The question then, is what really have we done to prepare ourselves for the reduction in cut levels?
Not much, it seems.
It appears that local politicians are now scrambling to try to keep cut levels elevated. On the block are old growth forests, viewscapes, and anything else that can be cut to help keep cut levels elevated.
And, it appears the volume-based versus area-based tenures debate will re-surface.
鈥淭he analysis indicated that without mitigation, timber supply would decline by 67 per cent in the Lakes timber supply area, 51 per cent in Quesnel timber supply area, 32 per cent in Prince George timber supply area and 32 per cent in Williams Lake timber supply area compared to pre-beetle timber supply levels. Regionally these reductions would lead to a timber supply that could support about 53 per cent less employment in the area than pre-beetle,鈥 states the report.
The report also outlines several ways in which government can involve communities in a dialogue about what is happening. We鈥檝e known for a decade that this was going to happen, dialogue should have begun long before now.
Government鈥檚 inaction is likely to ignite another war in the woods and that won鈥檛 help anyone.
Bill Phillips is the editor of the Prince George Free Press.