After receiving the electors鈥� stern October message, Premier David Eby spoke with the required humility, 鈥淲e are listening to the message voters sent to us with this close election, and will be getting to work on today鈥檚 tough challenges right away.鈥�

The premier鈥檚 office echoed Eby鈥檚 familiar talking points, 鈥淭he new cabinet鈥檚 priorities will be bringing down costs for families, strengthening health care, making communities safer and growing the economy so everyone feels the benefits.鈥� To bring down living costs and grow the economy will require major shifts in the NDP government鈥檚 energy and climate policies.

BC Business magazine, citing prominent economists, wrote that high mortgage debt in B.C., the impending end of four energy mega projects and relatively high exposure to the Chinese market will make the B.C. economy 鈥渦niquely vulnerable鈥� going forward.

The B.C. economy is fragile. TD Economics has forecast growth in real GDP at only 0.9% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Worse, real income (GDP per capita) in B.C. has fallen since 2022. David Williams, V.P. of the Business Council of B.C., has shown that real income will essentially flat-line to 2028.

Canada and B.C. enjoy significant competitive advantages in the oil and gas industries. Yet, the governments of both jurisdictions have deliberately constrained the growth of these leading export industries to battle climate change. In B.C. this has been a key cause of the current and coming economic malaise.

In 2023, Eby added requirements for LNG projects to produce 鈥渃redible plans鈥� to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030, and announced an emissions cap for the oil and gas industry. CleanBC already required all large industrial facilities to be net-zero by 2050, not 2030. Why add the special restraints for oil, gas and LNG?

If Premier Eby genuinely wants to improve the economy, his government must be flexible with deadlines for net-zero compliance in the LNG industry and must deep-six the petroleum emissions cap. Instead, it should incentivize development where it is positioned for economic success.

The province has announced a new transmission line from Prince George to Kitimat, scheduled for completion in 2032. Had the province acted sooner to provide electrical generation and transmission infrastructure, the LNG industry would be able to achieve net-zero emissions on new projects.

Over the last 12 months, B.C. imported 25% of its electricity from Alberta and Washington State, largely generated with fossil fuels. BC Hydro in April called for proposals for new renewable energy projects, and recently selected nine projects. While that鈥檚 a start, it is not enough. BC Hydro will require much more capacity to meet growing demand, even with the Site C project coming on stream in 2025. Site C can only generate about half of BC Hydro鈥檚 current shortfall.

The LNG industry will significantly boost electrical demand. The liquefaction process for the first phase of the LNG Canada is gas-fired. There may be adequate electricity to power the second phase, along with the Woodfibre LNG project and possibly the Cedar LNG project, according to gas market expert, Ian Archer of S&P Global. That seems optimistic, however, without expanded electrical capacity or ongoing imports.

In any case, the proposed Ksi Lisims LNG project will likely be unable to secure the required electricity. Archer told the Financial Post, 鈥淚t鈥檚 going to be very challenging for BC Hydro to meet (the demand of) something like a Ksi Lisims project.鈥� He added, 鈥渋t may be a bridge too far.鈥�

There is an additional barrier to LNG development. The BC NDP鈥檚 election victory was extremely tight. They need the support of the BC Green Party to govern. Even if the NDP should be willing and able to push the LNG projects ahead and get additional electrical generation and transmission in place, the Greens could muster formidable resistance.

Policies can be selected to address climate change with limited economic damage. The Green Party鈥檚 climate policies are not those. They are radical. They include a phase out date for natural gas production, a ban on new pipelines and new LNG projects, suspension of permits for the Prince Rupert Gas Transmission (PRGT) pipeline already under construction, a windfall profits tax on oil and gas companies, a province-wide ban on gas hookups in new buildings, and much more.

It鈥檚 a job-killing, growth-killing agenda, and a recipe for inflation! If the NDP government accepts just a portion of the Greens鈥� program, B.C鈥檚 short and medium term economic future will be bleak. And Eby will be trashing his pledge to ease the high cost of living and to secure economic growth for all B.C. residents.